The collapse of the Assad regime has far-reaching consequences. There is genuine fear that Syria could become a safe haven for extremist groups.
In a stunning turn of events, the Syrian government under President Bashar al-Assad collapsed without any resistance after a lightning offensive by rebel forces spearheaded by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The offensive began on November 27, 2024, and gained momentum, with HTS swiftly capturing cities like Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Daraa and Sweida before advancing to Damascus on December 8 and taking over vital installations like the airport and the national TV station. This development marks a dramatic end to the 50-year rule of the Assad family and signals a potential reshaping of the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East. President Assad reportedly fled the country, though his exact whereabouts remain unknown.
While it is difficult to fathom how the regime, which claimed to have controlled 70% of the territory of Syria, succumbed to such a sudden collapse, many factors seem to have contributed to it. Years of conflict left the Syrian Armed Forces fragmented and significantly weakened, with the morale of the troops at an all-time low. On the contrary, the Opposition groups had been training and organising for years in anticipation of such an opportunity to overthrow the regime. The traditional backers of Syria –– Russia and Iran –– remained involved in their conflicts with Ukraine and Israel, respectively, and were unable to sustain meaningful support for Assad’s regime.
The last ditch effort by the exasperated Syrian regime to solicit military support from Iran, Iraq and the Iraq-based Hezbollah units failed to elicit any favourable response when talks between foreign ministers of Syria, Iran and Iraq in Baghdad on December 6, amidst the rapidly evolving situation in Syria, concluded that it might be too late to address many of the developments on the ground or to swing the balance in favour of the Syrian regime forces. This might have prompted the Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali to announce his government’s readiness to cooperate with “any leadership chosen by the people and facilitate a peaceful handover.”
The fall of Assad’s regime has taken the whole world by surprise. The Biden administration is closely monitoring the situation without plans for direct intervention, while President-elect Donald Trump advocated for a hands-off approach, stating, “Syria is a mess…Let it play out.” Although Russia announced continued support for Assad, it began evacuating its bases in western Syria, including air defence units from Masiyaf and closed its diplomatic mission in Damascus. Iran also finds itself in a similar situation, where ideologically, it backs Assad but appears unable or unwilling to reinforce him significantly to change the outcome in his favour. Iran has already begun evacuating military commanders and diplomatic staff from Syria.
Israel is particularly concerned about the situation along the Syrian-Israeli border. It is also worried about the possible landing of lethal chemical and strategic weapons that were possessed by the Assad regime in the hands of Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies in Lebanon. In an unprecedented move, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) entered the UN-monitored buffer zone along the Syria-Israel border in the Golan Heights for the first time since 1974, deploying tanks and infantry forces. This action was taken to prevent any potential incursion by rebel forces that had taken control of parts of Syria.
Saudi Arabia and other Arab nations, such as Qatar and Jordan, issued joint statements warning of the risks of further instability and sought greater international humanitarian aid for the Syrian people. Turkey officially denied any involvement but is believed to have given tacit approval for the rebel offensive.
The collapse of Assad’s regime represents a seismic shift in Middle Eastern geopolitics with far-reaching consequences. It significantly affected Russia and Iran’s influence in the region, severely weakening and disrupting Iran’s “Axis of Resistance.” On the other hand, Turkey’s influence in Syria and the region is likely to increase substantially, as it has been a main backer of opposition groups, particularly the Syrian National Army.
The potential control of Syria by HTS raises concerns about increased radicalisation and its implications as it may seek to establish governance based on strict Shariat laws. The classification of HTS as a terrorist organisation by the US, Canada, the UK and other countries could complicate dealing with the new Syrian regime. There are also genuine fears that Syria could become a safe haven for extremist groups under the HTS.
As the situation continues to evolve, the international community faces the challenge of addressing the power vacuum left by Assad’s departure while mitigating the risks of further instability and radicalisation.
India has maintained cautious neutrality in the Syrian conflict, opposing foreign intervention and supporting a Syrian-led peace process. However, it has also actively contributed to Syria’s development, focusing on infrastructure, education, and capacity building. India has also provided humanitarian aid to Syria, including prosthetics, anti-cancer drugs, and earthquake relief.
There are many opportunities for Indian investments in Syria, particularly in the pharmaceuticals, agriculture, and technology sectors. Syria’s phosphate rock reserves, estimated at over 2 billion tons, contain high-grade ore with a phosphorus content of around 28-34%, making it one of the world’s richest sources of phosphate rock. India can explore making investments in phosphate mines for mutual benefit. Indian companies like BHEL, ONGC, IRCON, BEML, KEC and others, already active in Syria before the sanctions were imposed, could participate in the post-war reconstruction efforts.
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(This article was published in the Op-Ed page of Hindustan Times on December 10, 2024)
