Donald Trump’s return to the White House as the 47th President of the United States is poised to significantly reshape America’s approach to the Middle East. His victory has elicited a range of reactions across the region, from enthusiastic support to cautious concern, reflecting the complex dynamics at play in this volatile region.
Strengthened U.S.-Israel Relations
One of the most immediate and pronounced impacts of Trump’s victory is likely to be a reinforcement of the U.S.-Israel alliance. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hailed Trump’s win as “history’s greatest comeback,” signalling a return to the close cooperation that characterised Trump’s previous term.
Netanyahu’s statement that Trump’s return offers “a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America” underscores the optimism in Israeli government circles about this development.
Trump’s previous tenure saw several pro-Israel moves, including recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, moving the U.S. embassy there, and facilitating the Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between Israel and several Arab states.
These actions significantly strengthened U.S.-Israel ties and reshaped regional dynamics. The Israeli government, particularly its right-wing members, anticipates a more supportive stance from the U.S. under Trump. This could potentially embolden Israel in its military operations and territorial ambitions. Israel Ganz, chairman of the Yesha Council representing settlers, expressed hope for “an ally standing unconditionally beside us,” suggesting expectations of reduced pressure on settlement activities in the West Bank.
Impact on the Israel-Hamas Conflict
Trump’s approach to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas is expected to differ significantly from the current administration’s. He has criticised calls for a ceasefire, describing them as efforts to “tie Israel’s hands behind its back”.
Trump argues that under his administration, Hamas would not have attacked Israel due to his stringent policies against Iran, a major supporter of Hamas. This stance suggests that Trump may give Israel more latitude in its military operations against Hamas, potentially allowing for a more aggressive approach.
Michael Makovsky, the president and CEO of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America, said, “Trump would prefer that Israel conclude its major military operations by the time of his inauguration.”
However, Hamas has called on Trump to “work seriously to stop the war of genocide and aggression against our Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank”, indicating the complex challenges Trump will face in addressing this conflict.
Approach to Iran
Trump’s victory is likely to herald a return to a more hawkish stance towards Iran. During his previous administration, Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and pursued a “maximum pressure” policy through sanctions and other measures.
Iranian leaders and their regional allies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen are bracing for what they anticipate will be a challenging period.
The main concerns for Iran include the potential for Trump to empower Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to strike Iran’s nuclear sites, conduct targeted assassinations, and reimpose stringent sanctions on their oil industry. This approach could significantly impact Iran’s economy and regional influence, potentially altering the balance of power in the Middle East.
Iran, as a supporter of both Hamas and Hezbollah, might respond to increased U.S. and Israeli pressure by intensifying its support for these groups or through direct actions, further complicating the situation.
Regional Diplomacy and the Abraham Accords
Trump’s return could reshape regional diplomatic efforts. He may attempt to build on the Abraham Accords, which normalised relations between Israel and several Arab states during his previous term.
This approach could lead to further normalisation agreements, possibly including Saudi Arabia. However, critics argue that Trump’s policies have further marginalised Palestinians in regional peace efforts.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas expressed confidence in U.S. support for Palestinian aspirations under Trump’s leadership, emphasising a commitment to freedom and statehood.
This highlights the delicate balance Trump will need to strike in addressing Palestinian concerns while maintaining strong support for Israel.
Reactions from Arab Countries
The reactions from Arab countries to Trump’s victory have been mixed. Several leaders have extended congratulations:
- Qatar’s Emir, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al-Thani, expressed anticipation of working with Trump again to enhance regional and global security and stability.
- Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi voiced hope that Trump’s presidency would contribute to Middle East peace.
- Saudi Arabia’s King Salman and Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman reaffirmed the strong ties between their nation and the U.S.
- UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice President, Prime Minister, and Ruler of Dubai, congratulated Trump and expressed the UAE’s readiness to continue its cooperation with the United States.
- Jordan’s King Abdullah II expressed anticipation for continued partnership with the U.S. for regional and global stability.
- Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan referred to Trump as “my friend” in his congratulatory message and hoped that in this new era, Turkish-US relations would grow stronger and that regional and global crises and wars, especially the one in Palestine and the Russia-Ukraine war, will come to an end.
However, some countries and groups have adopted a more cautious stance. Hamas stated that its position towards the new U.S. administration would depend on its policies regarding Palestinian rights and issues.
Iran’s government spokesperson, Fatemeh Mohajerani, stated that the U.S. election results would not impact Iranian livelihoods, emphasising the country’s policy stability regardless of external political changes.
Potential for Conflict Escalation
Trump’s unconventional approach to the region, characterised by strong support for Israel and a tough stance on Iran, and his personal relationships with regional leaders could influence diplomatic manoeuvres in unexpected ways.
There are concerns that Trump’s policies might provoke broader regional instability, particularly regarding Iran. His previous actions, such as the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, led to increased tensions in the region. A return to such aggressive policies could further destabilise an already volatile situation.
Economic Implications
Trump’s economic policies could have significant regional impacts. His proposed tariffs and “America First” approach may alter trade relationships with Middle Eastern countries.
The Iranian currency has already fallen to an all-time low in response to Trump’s victory, indicating potential economic challenges for Iran under renewed U.S. pressure.
To sum up, Donald Trump’s return to the White House will likely bring substantial changes to U.S. policy in the Middle East. His presidency is expected to strengthen U.S.-Israel ties, potentially giving Israel greater freedom in its military operations and regional ambitions. At the same time, it may lead to increased pressure on Iran and its allies, possibly escalating regional tensions. Trump’s approach to diplomacy, characterised by personal relationships and unconventional methods, could lead to unexpected breakthroughs in regional conflicts. However, it also risks further marginalising certain groups, particularly Palestinians, in the pursuit of broader regional agreements.
As the Middle East continues to grapple with ongoing conflicts and complex geopolitical dynamics, Trump’s policies will play a crucial role in shaping the region’s future. The coming months and years will reveal the full extent of the impact of his return to power on this volatile and strategically important part of the world.
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(This article was originally written for WestAsiaReview)
