Donald Trump’s landslide victory in the 2024 presidential elections, in which he received 312 electoral votes and over 74 million popular votes, won all seven swing states, regaining Republican control over the Senate, and came on the verge of securing a slim majority in the House of Representatives, has significantly altered the political landscape in the United States.
Interestingly, foreign policy issues, predominantly the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East involving Israel and Iran and its proxies—Hamas, Hezbollah, and Houthis—played a significant role in shaping the outcome of the US presidential elections, especially in close races. It is perhaps the first time since the 1980 election, when President Jimmy Carter damaged his re-election bid due to his poor handling of the Iran hostage crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, that external issues grabbed so much attention in the presidential elections.
It was also an election that witnessed a perceptible shift in the voting patterns of the 2 million registered Arab-American and Muslim-American voters, who have traditionally leaned Democratic but showed unprecedented support for Trump this time, feeling betrayed by the Biden administration’s unflinching support for Israel’s actions in Gaza that killed nearly 45,000 civilians, most of them women and children, prompting the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman to describe it as a ‘genocide’ at the recently held Arab-Islamic Summit in Riyadh.
Trump actively courted the Arab and Muslim voters, mainly in Michigan, through personal community interactions, projecting himself as a ‘peacemaker’ and promising to end the war in Gaza. In Dearborn, where over 55% of residents are of Middle Eastern descent, Trump won 42% of the vote, up from 30% in 2020. In Hamtramck, the first majority-Muslim city in the U.S., Trump’s vote share increased from 13% in 2020 to 43% in 2024. Interestingly, Massad Boulos, the Lebanese-American billionaire who is the father-in-law of Trump’s youngest daughter, Tiffany, helped garner the support of Arab voters for Trump. Tiffany had married Michael Boulos, a Lebanese-origin businessman based in Lagos, Nigeria, at Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Florida, in November 2022.
Now, the question in everyone’s mind is: Will Trump’s triumphant return as President of the United States herald a new era of peace and stability in the Middle East or push the region further into chaos and uncertainty?
Trump’s first term as president had a mixed record of achievements and failures in the Middle East. He brokered normalisation agreements between Israel and several Arab states, including the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, through what is popularly known as the “Abraham Accords.” He also continued and largely completed the military campaign against ISIS in Iraq and Syria, including the killing of ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. Trump, however, received a major setback when his “Deal of the Century” proposal for establishing a Palestinian state was vehemently rejected both by the Palestinians as well as the Arabs as one-sided and pro-Israel.
It is widely speculated that Trump’s victory will likely strengthen the U.S.-Israel alliance and provide continued unconditional support for Netanyahu. During his previous term, Trump made several pro-Israel decisions, including recognising Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, relocating the U.S. embassy there, and acknowledging Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, which Israel captured from Syria in 1967 and annexed in 1981.
While many in the region believe that Trump 2.0 may give a free hand to Israel to strike at will in Gaza and Lebanon and annex new areas, possibly even in the West Bank, others believe that during his second term, Trump may exercise greater caution so as not to let his presidency get bogged down with unending conflicts, which have a potential for rapid escalation with severe consequences for the region. Instead, he may focus on broadening the mandate of the Abraham Accords to include more countries, such as Saudi Arabia, and try to bring about stability in the region by containing Iran and its proxies.
Iran finds itself in a precarious position, with uncertainty looming over whether Trump will revive and intensify his “maximum pressure” strategy against it or adopt a lenient approach and re-negotiate the nuclear deal. Trump’s inner circle includes many Iran hawks who prefer intensifying pressure on Iran, even to the extent of taking military action. The unearthing of an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate Donald Trump, which Iran denies, and the arrest of two individuals in New York further complicates the already strained relationship between the two adversaries.
Stringent actions against Iran during Trump’s first term led to a dramatic fall in Iran’s gross official reserves from an average of $70 billion in 2017 to just $4 billion in 2020. Iranian oil exports decreased by 95%, from 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2018 to a low of only 70,000 bpd in 2020. There has since been a recovery under the Biden administration, with Iran’s current production reaching around 3.2 million bpd.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s government is keen to avoid such crippling sanctions. It has started sending signals that it may be open to de-escalation and negotiation with the incoming Trump administration. Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated on social media that “Differences can be resolved through collaboration and dialogue”.
The recent meeting between Iranian officials and Rafael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which took place in Tehran on November 14, 2024, was described as “important and straightforward.” Iran reiterated its commitment to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and expressed willingness to engage in dialogue, but it insisted that it would not negotiate under pressure or intimidation.
Some Iranian officials view Trump’s election as a potential diplomatic opportunity despite the tense history between the two countries. There are suggestions that some in Iran believe a deal could potentially be reached with Trump. The recent “long and constructive” meeting between Elon Musk, who has emerged as a key aide of President-elect Trump, and Iran’s Ambassador to the United Nations, Amir Saeid Iravani, in New York, reportedly focused on ways to reduce tensions between the two sides and has raised hopes for possible direct negotiations between the two arch enemies.
Interestingly, the power dynamics in the Middle East have changed since Trump left office in 2021, with countries like Russia and China beginning to challenge the US hegemony. The Gulf states also find that their interests are better served by having a balance between different superpowers rather than relying only on the United States. China has emerged as a proactive power in the region and has started political mediation in conflicts, facilitating the rapprochement between long-standing rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran. These countries quickly reopened each other’s embassies in their capitals, and their leadership started direct talks. Saudi Arabia has even proposed a joint military exercise with Iran in the Red Sea, symbolising a new alignment that shares a common interest in safeguarding the crucial international waters and preventing non-state actors like the Houthis from taking control of this vital area.
The United States, particularly under the Republicans, has maintained close relations with several Arab and Islamic countries, either as major non-NATO allies (Bahrain, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and Morocco), critical strategic partners (Saudi Arabia), or NATO allies (Turkey). In particular, Trump fostered close personal ties with Gulf leaders like Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed. Despite their friendliness with Trump during his first term, the Gulf leaders are wary of traditional war-mongers and hawks in Trump’s cabinet, who could inflame the Middle East at a time when it is already on the brink of an all-out regional war.
Notwithstanding his unpredictability, Trump has been recognised as an unconventional leader with a strong tendency for deal-making. He could leave a legacy if he plays a constructive role in the Middle East. The need of the hour is to facilitate an immediate ceasefire, both in Gaza and Lebanon, and create favourable conditions for the resumption of dialogue among all stakeholders, with the US acting as a guarantor to establish a viable Palestinian state, which is perceived to be the root cause of all tensions in the region. The normalisation of Israel’s diplomatic relations with other countries, including Saudi Arabia, would follow automatically.
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